Fertilizer, diesel woes make for difficult spring planting decisions

North Dakota farmers face unprecedented price increases heading into the planting season due to supply chain constraints stemming from the Iran war. 

A hit to North Dakota’s agriculture economy could put more pressure on farms trying to stay afloat as well as impact jobs in communities where farming is the primary economic driver. 

Valerie Wagner, president of the North Dakota Farm Bureau who farms and ranches near Monango, ND, said the longer farmers spend time in this “unprecedented area” adds more uncertainty for decisions about planting going into the spring. 

Wagner said prices were already somewhat high last fall when farmers were contracting fuel and fertilizer. 

“Most of the people I’ve talked to didn’t contract everything they thought they’d need, because they were hoping that with some of the things that were going on and some of the promises that were being made, that maybe prices would actually come down,” Wagner said.

Instead, they’ve gone much higher. 

Average diesel prices are closing in on $5 per gallon in North Dakota and are nearly $1.50 higher per gallon than they were at this time last year. 

On April 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted that elevated fuel prices are expected to extend through the year.

“That impacts absolutely everything,” said Evan Montgomery, ND Soybean Council Vice Chairman and a third-generation grain farmer from Grand Forks. “Every day we get out of bed we have to pay a fuel bill.” 

High fertilizer costs are a major concern with urea prices spiking 47% since February and nitrogen fertilizer prices up 30%, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. 

“Just with fertilizer prices, you’re looking at $60, $80, $100 difference (per acre) in your crop budget for the year,” Montgomery said. “With a lot of this stuff, we’re working on thin or even negative margins, so this is a double-whammy if there ever was one.” 

An AFBF poll of over 5,000 farmers nationwide in early April found that 70% are unable to afford all the fertilizer they needed, with the rate in the Midwestern region at 48%. 

One positive is the Midwestern region had the highest rate of pre-booked fertilizer in the country, with 67% reporting they’d purchased before the price increases.

Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, said the skyrocketing costs of fuel and fertilizer are a major concern. 

“It’s important to recognize that in the case of fertilizer, costs were already at elevated levels,” Perdue said. “It’s a major challenge for producers in terms of what it means right now going into this growing season.” 

One of the biggest concerns is for farmers who did not secure contracts. 

“The ones who have not purchased fertilizer yet are the ones who are most financially leveraged, and they’re struggling to put together an operating budget that is going to work for them,” Perdue said. 

Even with supply constraints and potential shortages, pre-booked fertilizer doesn’t necessarily mean it will get to the farm in a timely manner. 

“Another issue we have to consider, just because you contracted that fuel and that fertilizer, unless you took possession of it at the time, unless you actually took delivery, you’re not guaranteed the product,” Wagner said. 

“I've heard a lot of people concerned about whether or not they're actually going to be able to get in everything that they contracted because it just may not be available to them,” she said. 

A needed shift 

Higher prices and potential shortages could mean less fertilizer use and lower crop yields. 

Perdue said options for producers include shifting to other commodities, including pulse crops, soybeans, lentils, and peas that may need less fertilizer. 

“I think some producers are going to be making those decisions anyway, given the price pressure,” Perdue said. “If there are significant shortages at the local level, you’re going to see producers have to make some game time decisions on what they’re planting and what their application rates are.” 

The Persian Gulf accounts for 36% of global supply of urea, 29% of anhydrous ammonia, 26% of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 13% of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), almost all of which is shipped through the contested Strait of Hormuz. 

“If we have fertilizer shortages, it’s going to be impossible to make up for that shortfall,” Perdue said. “There’s no great plan B for covering that shortfall.” 

Looking further out, Perdue and others hope this can spur the U.S. industry to increase its domestic supply and production of fertilizers as well as more competition in the marketplace. 

“The fertilizer market is heavily consolidated,” Perdue said. “Four players control the vast majority of the nitrogen fertilizer market. Phosphorus, potash, those are even more heavily consolidated. 

“There's been some positive movement with the federal administration investigating that, but ultimately we need to see real action to provide real relief. This level of consolidation is just leaving farmers exposed when we have market shocks like this,” Perdue said. 

While a shift to more domestic production would be welcome, it wouldn’t happen overnight. 

“Any time you can source domestically and not get caught up in any type of geopolitical or international disputes, that’s better, but that’s a long-term process,” said Josh Gackle, chairman of the American Soybean Association.  

“You don’t start up a fertilizer plant in six months,” Gackle said. “It’s a big investment, it takes a lot of time. What we really need is just more certainty on the traditional supply of fertilizer and fuel products.” 

The addition of soybean crushing facilities in North Dakota and elsewhere has helped increase the domestic market for soybean producers and a push for more domestic production of renewable ethanol, diesel and other biofuels could also help. 

“We’re hoping that the industry, the crushing plants in North Dakota and others, can continue to keep their operations going and grow and expand and continue to build that domestic market for what we're growing here as farmers,” said Gackle. 

State support already at record levels 

In mid-March, the North Dakota Industrial Commission allocated another $100 million for the Bank of North Dakota’s 2026 Farm Stability Loan Program on top of the nearly $400 million already set aside for the program. 

The total is more than double the record of $190 million previously set aside for the program and fast approaching triple if more allocations are made. 

The program helps producers restructure debts incurred in the past two years at lower interest rates. 

“Producers are facing an unusual convergence of challenges, from severe weather last summer to high input costs, trade policy uncertainty and low commodity prices,” said a joint statement from the Commission composed of Gov. Kelly Armstrong, Attorney General Drew Wrigley and Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring. 

John Bitzan, Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth at North Dakota State University, said the program was boosted both because of continued high input prices and also fallout from U.S. tariffs and trade retaliation from China. 

“This means U.S. farmers are able to sell less of their products. That has put financial pressure on them. And now, with the current war, this is causing more distress to farmers and uncertainty as well for the future,” Bitzan said. 

Increased inflation also leads to producers putting off large purchases of machinery and other equipment, which impacts implement producers and dealers. 

“Obviously the agricultural economy is an important part of North Dakota's economy, so negative impacts to the agricultural producers are not good for our economy,” Bitzan said.