Poll: Trump, Armstrong support firm; Fedorchak, Cramer slip

Both North Dakota Governor Kelly Armstrong and President Donald Trump enjoy strong support for their performance over the past half-year in their respective positions, the latest North Dakota Poll indicates. 

Of the 625 regular voters polled across the state, 64% approve of Trump’s performance, with the highest approval ratings in the Bismarck-Mandan region and in western North Dakota. 

Trump’s lowest numbers are in Fargo and Cass County, where 56% approved of his performance, while 43% disapproved. 

Trump received 67% of the vote in North Dakota in the 2024 election so the latest polling shows a slight, but not significant, drop from those numbers. 

“This poll pretty much reflects the fact that North Dakota is a heavily Republican state and supports Republican policies,” said Barbara Headrick, president of the League of Women Voters of North Dakota. 

The numbers for Republicans approving of Trump’s handling of the presidency (97%) and Democrats disapproving (87%) were not surprising, but self-described Independents were more interesting. 

Only 55% of Independents gave Trump the thumbs up and 44% have a more negative view of his performance. Independent voters accounted for 219 of the respondents, or 35%. 

Female support for Trump, however, is also softer, with 57% approving and 42% disapproving of his first half-year as POTUS. 

“The thing that really jumped out was the gender split on the approval of Trump,” said Mark Jendrysik, a professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Dakota. 

“Obviously, there's still high approval for Trump, but that 72% of men approve and 57% of women approve, that is an interesting difference,” he said. 

Headrick said those numbers related to female voters may reflect some things the poll did not cover. 

“Cuts to things like Medicaid tend to land on women more in terms of who picks up the slack if a family member loses support,” she said. “The support for Trump’s immigration policies is significantly less among women, as is the idea that tariffs could make their personal situation better.” 

Armstrong most popular 

Governor Armstrong, who got 68% of the vote last November, did not see a significant divergence from those numbers in this latest poll. 

Currently, 66% of voters approve of his performance, with numbers pretty even across the state, though the highest in western North Dakota at 71%. 

A total of 11% of respondents in eastern North Dakota – not counting the Fargo-Cass County region – said they weren’t sure about Armstrong’s performance, possibly reflecting a failure of Armstrong in actively engaging in issues there. 

Independents were more favorable of Armstrong than of Trump, with 57% approving and 33% disapproving, though 10% were uncertain about how he’s doing as the state’s top executive. 

Congressional approvals mixed

Among the state’s congressional delegation, Sen. John Hoeven had the highest approval rate at 63% while the ratings for both Sen. Kevin Cramer and Rep. Julie Fedorchak appear to have slipped since elections last year. 

Only 54% of respondents approved of Fedorchak’s performance, while 27% disapproved and 19% were unsure. 

Fedorchak secured 69% of the vote this past November, beating Democratic-NPL challenger Trygve Hammer, who garnered 30% of the vote. 

Jendrysik said it was hard to figure out the reason for Fedorchak’s softer numbers and there could be speculation on any number of reasons. The lower public profile as a U.S. representative versus a senator’s seat and the fact that she’s new to the position could be factors, he said. 

Jendrysik also said he felt Fedorchak has taken more heat than the two senators for not holding in-person town halls, although she has made herself available for four virtual town halls since taking her House seat in Washington, D.C. 

No one among the congressional delegation has had in-person town halls in North Dakota since at least 2019, before the state of the Covid pandemic, according to a Gigafact fact brief recently conducted by the North Dakota News Cooperative.

Headrick said that questions like those in this and other polls are questions that people across the state would like to be asking their congressional delegation in person right now. 

“None of them are holding in-person town hall meetings of any kind,” Headrick said. 

Sen. Cramer’s approval rate stands at 59% and he has the highest disapproval rate among the congressional delegation at 37%. 

Cramer also had the highest rate of disapproval among Independents among the delegation at 55%. 

Cramer defeated Dem-NPL challenger Katrina Christiansen in November last year, securing 66% of the vote over her 33%. 

As the only major urban center in the state, the Fargo-Cass County region led on disapproval rates for all the congressional delegation, and for President Trump. Armstrong’s numbers remained consistently favorable across all geographical regions. 

“It isn’t enormous, but it is there,” Jendrysik said of the difference of opinion in Fargo-Cass County. “I think that's part of an interesting long-term trend, given you've got literally a quarter of the population of North Dakota now living in Cass County.” 

The North Dakota Poll, sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative, was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida. From August 4 through August 6, 2025, 625 adults identifying as regular voters were interviewed statewide by phone. The margin of error is no more than + or - 4%, according to the polling firm. 

A total of 155 respondents were in Fargo-Cass County, 155 in eastern North Dakota, 120 in the Bismarck-Mandan region, and another 195 in western North Dakota. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The North Dakota News Cooperative is a nonprofit news organization providing reliable and independent reporting on issues and events that impact the lives of North Dakotans. The organization increases the public’s access to quality journalism and advances news literacy across the state. For more information about NDNC or to make a charitable contribution, please visit newscoopnd.org. Send comments, suggestions or tips to michael@newscoopnd.org. Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDNewsCoop.