Ag producers in worst 3-month cost-price gap since 2015, new USDA data shows
This article was originally published by our Rural News Network partner, Investigate Midwest.
Late 2025 marked the most severe three-month stretch in more than a decade for the gap between what agriculture producers pay to operate and what they receive in return, according to an analysis of USDA data released January 30.
The latest data builds on a pattern that’s existed for years: U.S. farmers have faced a cost deficit every month since at least January 2015, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of federal price indexes.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that the prices paid index, which tracks production costs such as fertilizer, fuel, seed, feed, machinery, and labor, has exceeded the prices received index in every month over the past decade.
The indexes are measured against 2011 levels, which are set to 100, allowing changes over time to be compared without using dollar amounts. A ratio above 100 means farmers’ selling prices are increasing faster than their production costs.
The size of that cost-price deficit has fluctuated, but it has never turned positive. Even during periods when rising commodity prices narrowed the gap, farmers still faced higher indexed costs than indexed returns, the data shows.
The imbalance deepened sharply in late 2025.
This past October recorded the largest gap (-34.1) between farm costs and prices received in more than a decade. Data released today show December had the second-largest gap (-32.2), with November ranking third (-27.9), the data shows.
This builds on earlier reporting by Investigate Midwest that showed the gap hit a decade high in late 2025, but the longer view shows that the underlying relationship has remained negative for years.
What changed in 2025 was not the direction of the trend, but the depth of the deficit.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the prices paid and prices received indexes track changes in farm operating costs and commodity prices, not profits. Even so, the relationship between the two shows farmers have faced steady financial pressure for years.
How does USDA compile this data?
The price indexes come from a mix of surveys and market data collected by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
To track prices paid, USDA surveys thousands of agribusinesses each year about what farmers are paying for hundreds of inputs, including fertilizer, fuel, feed, seed, machinery, and labor. Those prices are combined into a single index that reflects overall changes in farm production costs.
To track prices received, USDA collects monthly data on what farmers earn for crops and livestock. For major crops, that includes surveys of grain elevators, mills, and buyers. For livestock, USDA relies on daily and weekly price reports from packing plants and auctions.
USDA then turns those prices into indexes, setting a base year at 100, to show how prices today compare with earlier years rather than listing dollar amounts.
This article first appeared on Investigate Midwest and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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