Fact Brief

Is the cost of the Thanksgiving meal less this year than last, despite most grocery prices being higher?

Yes

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2025 Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Survey finds that the average price of the classic holiday meal for 10 people is about 5% lower than in 2024.

The North Dakota News Cooperative is partnering with Gigafact to produce timely fact briefs, which are quick, evidence-based fact checks about trending claims relevant to North Dakota.

The decline is driven primarily by a steep drop in turkey prices—down roughly 16% from 2024—as supplies recovered from earlier losses caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza. With flocks rebuilt and production stabilized, the cost of the turkey fell enough to outweigh price increases in several side dishes.

Items such as sweet potatoes, some vegetables, and dairy products rose in price this year, while a few other components saw modest declines or remained steady.

Overall grocery inflation remains a factor for many households, but the turkey reduction exerted such a strong influence on the total basket that the combined meal cost decreased compared to last year.

This fact brief is in response to online conversations such as this one.

Sources:

American Farm Bureau Federation - Cost of Thanksgiving dinner declines
FoodDive - Lower turkey prices slash Thanksgiving dinner costs in 2025
FarmProgress America - Turkey flock at 40-year low, wholesale prices up 40 %–75 %

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Yes

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